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September 17, 2005

Herb Meyer's predictive powers

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Last Tuesday, Herb Meyer appeared on Lawrence Kudlow's Kudlow & Company show on CNBC, to discuss his article here, "A revolutionary change." The article dealt with the difficulties generals now face when revolutionary crowds challenge dictatorial regimes. For a variety of reasons Herb explains very well, their own children may well be in the crowds into which they are ordered to shoot.

Lawrence Kudlow asked Herb to project where this might be happening next. "Kyrgyzstan" was his reply. He added some others to the list, in the longer run, including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and even Russia.

Today, the Associated Press press reports:

BISHKEK, Kyrgyzstan — President Askar Akayev reportedly fled on Thursday after protesters stormed his headquarters, seized control of state television and rampaged through government offices, throwing computers and air conditioners out of windows.

A leading opponent of the Akayev regime, Felix Kulov, was freed from prison and praised the "revolution made by the people."....

Interior Minister Keneshbek Dushebayev addressed demonstrators and urged them to obey the law, but he also departed from his warnings a day earlier of a violent crackdown, saying no force would be used against peaceful protesters.

About 1,000 people surged toward the hulking, Soviet—era building that contained Akayev's offices and met little resistance from the helmeted riot police who held truncheons and shields next to a protective fence. About half of the crowd entered through the front. Others smashed windows with stones, tossed papers and tore portraits of Akayev in half and stomped on them.

There is no evidence that an order to fire upon the crowd was given. But given the fact that a warning of a violent crackdown was issued to the crowd the day before, perhaps it became clear that no such order would be obeyed.

I am in awe of Herb's predictive power. I can only assume Larry Kudlow is, too. Perhaps it is time for his friends to insist that Herb turn his attention to the stock market.

Thomas Lifson   3 24 05