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September 28, 2005

Iran's Second Front stymied

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The Times of India reported today what is a major victory over Iran in the Global War on Terror.  India voted with the US, the EU, Japan, and several other countries on an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) resolution to bring Iran before the UN Security Council if it does not cooperate fully with UN inspectors.  In response, Iran canceled a natural gas export deal with India that was not only designed to boost the country's revenue, but to also split off India from the US and Western alliance in the war on terror.  Naturally, the legacy press is either ignorant of the geo—political significance of this development, or willfully chooses not to report on a major coup for the Bush Administration.

India's consideration of an energy pact with Iran stems from the fact that its growing economy will put a tremendous strain on its limited energy reserves.  The world's largest democracy currently has a daily natural gas requirement shortfall of almost 30 million cubic meters per day.  Therefore, India signed an initial agreement with Iran in June that called for importing 5 million tons of liquefied natural gas annually for 25 years starting in 2009.  But the US countered the mullahs' offer by securing a nuclear energy deal with India with the signing of the US—Indo Nuclear Pact in July.  In addition, the US will be supplying military defense aid packages consisting of advanced fighter aircraft, anti—missile systems, and digitized battle command gear.

Many Americans realize that the UN and the IAEA are near—useless in keeping a lid on the nuclear ambitions of rogue nations, and rightly see the ultimatum as another empty gesture in the long—running tradition of the UN coddling dictators and mass murderers.  But this misses the larger picture of what has transpired this past week.  GW's national security and foreign policy teams have deftly maneuvered the mullahs into a box, and have established the conditions to form an alliance in Asia to counter the developing anti—American bloc.

If Iran is brought before the Security Council in November, look for the voting pattern on enacting sanctions to further solidify the battle lines.  India is a natural ally of the US, and this relationship must be formalized; and the sooner the better.

Doug Hanson   09—28—05