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September 17, 2005

The Big Mo

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Polipundit links to an amazing poll from an outfit called Survey USA, which does polling for 50 local television stations all over the country. Instead of asking people for whom they are voting, they asked about whom they thought will win. This is, they say (and I believe), a better indication of momentum than a simple question of how someone intends to vote.

The results are overwhelming, particularly in some big, liberal cities like New York.

Examples:
—— In New York City, the number of adults who say Bush will win jumped from 39% on 7/22 (the week before the DNC) to 58% today: 19 points up for Bush, 17 points down for Kerry.
—— In Los Angeles, the number who say Bush will win jumped from 38% on 7/22 to 59% today: 21 points up for Bush, 18 points down for Kerry.
—— In Pittsburgh, Bush went from 44% to 64%: 20 points up for Bush, 19 points down for Kerry.

This is a massive, sudden change in public perceptions of the race. I can't think of any election in which I have seen anything quite like it.

Hat tip: Ed

Posted by Thomas   9 4 04