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October 12, 2009

Obama's Oslo Bounce Backward

By C. Edmund Wright

While it is always risky to assign too much of a trend to just a few days of Rasmussen's Daily Presidential Tracking Poll, there does seem to be a bit of an "Oslo bounce" for the President.

A bounce backwards that is.

Today's Presidential Approval Index by Rasmussen is -8.  This index is a snapshot Rasmussen derives by balancing the strongly approve versus strongly disapprove numbers.  Today the strongly approve numbers at 32% and the strongly disapproves are the highest they have been in several weeks at 40%.  Rasmussen uses a three-day rolling total average formula. 

The index is down 5 points from Saturday's number and down 2 from Sunday.  The significance? Perhaps it is that today's index is the first index where all responses happened after the Nobel Peace Prize Award.

Moreover, the Saturday index was Obama's best in a long time at -3.  That means at first blush, Obama got a Friday bounce from the award.  As the reality of the award's impact set in over Saturday and Sunday, his numbers tanked.  Tomorrow's rating will be key, as the great numbers Obama polled on Friday will roll off and Monday's polling results will be plugged in.  It is statistically likely that tomorrows index will be even lower.

In the past, we have tracked our "Give a Damn" index, and today that is -13.  This shows that the intensity of the negative feeling is greater than that of the positive feeling towards the President as 65% of the overall support is strong and 78% of the overall opposition is strongly felt.

Additionally, the new "Get a Clue" index for Obama today is -20.  The "Get a Clue" index compares the major polls in the Real Clear Politics Average now using "Adults" in their samples and comparing it to those using "Likely Voters" as their polling samples.  Currently, the only major poll using likely voters is Rasmussen.  Five national firms in the RCP average are using simply adults.  These are basic measures of approval versus disapproval without intensity factored in.

As you might expect, the most informed and caring among us -- the likely voters -- disapprove of Obama far more than a sample including anything that walks. (I think there's a spring break joke about anything that walks.....).

The RCP average using only adults has an Obama approval rating of +18.  Rasmussen's overall approval is -2, giving the -20 rating.  In other words, Obama polls about 20 points better among a lower common denominator sampling. 

Another dynamic this points out is how liberally controlled polling firms are trying to drive opinion instead of reporting it.  When their reputation for accuracy is on the line, around elections, none of these firms use simply "adults."  They will use likely voters or at least registered voters.  These firms include Gallup, CBS and McClatchy. 

But now, three years from any election Obama will run in, they feel safe to blatantly throw sound practices to the curb in order to paint the most positive picture of Obama they can.
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