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May 28, 2010

Investment advice: Go long on tar, feathers, and rails

By Monty Pelerin

Finally, there may be some good news. Uh, not necessarily what you might be expecting however. The good news is that things are actually worse than believed, and the collapse will occur sooner rather than later.

Why is that good news? It is, only in the sense that it provides some equity. It punishes the generation most responsible for the mess. According to David Einhorn, hedge fund manager, in a NY Times editorial (emphasis added):

Before this recession it appeared that absent action, the government's long-term commitments would become a problem in a few decades. I believe the government response to the recession has created budgetary stress sufficient to bring about the crisis much sooner. Our generation - not our grandchildren's - will have to deal with the consequences.

Unfortunately intergenerational justice might be served, but not intra-generational justice. Penalties for those living when the crash occurs will be felt by all, whether they in fact contributed to the problems or not.

Those most responsible (government and corporate officials) are apt to bear a less than proportionate share of the pain. As insiders, they may know what is coming and when and may be able to lessen the blow to themselves. Complete innocents will be punished (as they already have).

Perhaps this is an argument for not waiting for the crisis to really hit and to act now. Vigilante "justice" may be back in vogue. Go long tar, feathers and rails.


Monty Pelerin at www.economicnoise.com
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